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Hello from London,
Phew. The main reaction, all round, should be relief. Shortly before we were due to send this newsletter, Joe Biden released a statement to say he is standing aside as the Democratic candidate for president in November. This is excellent news, even if it took too long to come. Cheer it. Mr Biden has been a strong president, in my view, and should be proud of what he achieved in his term in the White House. But he should have accepted earlier that he is too old, frail and disliked to have had any reasonable chance of beating Donald Trump. Another candidate, almost any other candidate, will have a better opportunity.
What comes next? Mr Biden has endorsed his vice-president, Kamala Harris, to replace him. Does this mean a coronation is looming for Ms Harris—or might the Democrats somehow organise a speedy, but genuinely competitive contest to see who the strongest candidate might be? I’d much prefer the latter. Other candidates are almost certainly stronger than Ms Harris, whom I met at the very start of her campaign to be the Democratic nominee some four years ago. I was not particularly impressed by her. Perhaps because of my days as Midwest correspondent, I’m fonder of Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan. She has shown great confidence in facing down attacks from Mr Trump before. I’d also favour Raphael Warnock, a youngish senator in Georgia, for the ticket.
However, it does seem more likely that the party will unite around Ms Harris now. The challenge is to show voters that the party is of one mind, and that a younger candidate (she is 59 years old, to Mr Trump’s 78 years) has a big advantage over an old one, as so many Republicans themselves had previously been arguing. Among Democrats, too, there is a chance to motivate voters to get the first woman elected as American president. That might help to fire up the base.
Give Mr Biden credit for his decision. It’s exceedingly rare for politicians to voluntarily give up power. I can’t imagine Mr Trump ever proving so gracious. I admire politicians who understand that in democracy, for the sake of fostering trust in institutions and processes, there are times when you must concede power—and allow others to benefit. Nelson Mandela did so in South Africa in the late 1990s—I was deeply moved to sit with Mr Mandela a few short years later and to hear him talk about the importance of such values in modern politics. In contested elections there have been admirable candidates, such as Al Gore in 2000, who conceded a loss for the sake of democracy even when they might have fought on. Being willing to renounce power is an extraordinarily admirable trait. We will be publishing our first stories on this developing news later on Sunday.
In other news, the Olympics beckon. The great sporting event that begins this week with a grand ceremony. With luck, that show and the athletes’ performances will offer some relief from more gloomy global news. More likely, I suspect, world news could cause headaches for the Olympics. The organisers in Paris must brace for potential controversy. Most, but not all, Russian athletes have been barred from the games because of Vladimir Putin’s war-mongering. The usual worries persist over doping, demonstrations, overcrowding and security.
I suspect the biggest concern is whether Israeli athletes or fans might be targeted for protests, or worse, because of the ongoing war in Gaza. The horrors of the Munich Olympic games, in 1972, when Palestinian terrorists killed several Israeli athletes they first took hostage, are not forgotten. It is likely that Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s controversial leader, who is making a visit to America this week, will only stir up more animosity. He is set to speak to a joint sitting of Congress on Wednesday, two days before the Olympics begin. Many think Mr Netanyahu is dragging out the fighting in Gaza because that suits him politically at home.
Listen to our latest episode of The Weekend Intelligence podcast, in which our editor-in-chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes, visits Gaza and Israel and considers the dangerously rosy thinking about Gaza’s future.
Play the latest edition of Dateline—and remember you can also go back to try previous weeks’ editions.
What’s coming next in the American election? We just published our weekend profile, looking at Usha Vance, the wife of J.D. Vance, the Republicans’ new vice-presidential pick. Our poll tracker, assessing the national fortunes of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, shows the Republican is pulling ahead nationally. Worse for Mr Biden, our more elaborate election-forecast model, which weighs polls in swing states and more, suggests that Mr Trump could have an astounding five-in-six chance of winning. (Candidates often enjoy a polling surge after party conventions, something which appears true for Mr Trump following the Republicans’ convention last week.) Could that prospect (among other things) at last force Mr Biden to stand aside, perhaps even this week? You know my views on that—the Democrats desperately need to change candidates, and fast.
Thank you for the extraordinary mailbag you sent after the assassination attempt on Mr Trump. Francesca Turchiano, in New York, captured the dark mood of many writers, saying that “America today is surreal to many of us” and mentioning the spread of high-powered guns and growing division between fellow Americans. Esther Tseng, a Taiwanese reader, recalled a potentially similar event known as the “319 incident” in 2004 when President Chen Shui-bian was lightly injured by a gunshot while campaigning for election. He went on to win re-election. Controversy long swirled over the details of that attack.
Finally, here’s a summer innovation (or if you’re one of our many Aussie or Kiwi readers, a winter pastime). I’ve long been fond of caption competitions, so will try one here. I’ll serve up an image that has previously graced one of our covers. Your task is to suggest the best caption, or headline, that could go with it today. Keep your entry to a few words. We’ll judge the best—ideally the funniest—entries and will celebrate the winner. If there’s a tie, I’ll invite you to vote on them. Here’s the first image, from a cover in 2021. What caption would you add now?
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