WELCOME to Day Three of Global Playbook from the COP climate talks. Leaders are slated to take to the stage for a second day, as the world tries to rein in global warming and get its emission reduction targets back on track.

First up: In a depressing indication of just what’s at stake, a new report out this morning from the Global Carbon Project finds global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach a record high in 2024 — and warns there’s no sign of them peaking. CO2 emissions grew by 0.8 percent from 2023.

Didn’t get the memo: Try telling that to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, who used his opening speech in the plenary Tuesday to praise oil and gas as “a gift of God.”

“Countries should not be blamed for having them and should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market because the market needs them,” he declared. “The people need them.”

Aliyev also hit out at “state-controlled NGOs and fake news media in some Western countries,” Karl Mathiesen reports, accusing the EU of hypocrisy, by noting (correctly) that the bloc asked Azerbaijan for help in providing fuel in 2022. Read Karl’s full story here.

Singing from the same hymn sheet: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. “We must continue advancing the green transition while also maintaining our use of natural gas, oil and nuclear energy,” Orbán said in his speech Tuesday. He added: “We cannot sacrifice our industry or agriculture in this process,” and “we cannot impose unrealistic quotas or burdensome rules on farmers and companies.”

Counterpoint: Countries at highest risk from climate change struck a very different tone. Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu put the figure for new climate finance targets in “the trillions, not the billions,” while Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine took aim at those who’ll leave COP and “go home to pump more oil, extract more gas and mine more coal.”

Shell reprieve: As climate activists here in Baku pressure negotiators to raise the bar for new climate finance targets, some real-world news intruded on events. Energy giant Shell won a landmark case overturning a ruling ordering it to cut its emissions by 45 percent, which had been brought by campaign groups and 17,000 Dutch citizens. The case could have had severe repercussions for big businesses’ climate responsibility.

ZELENSKYY WATCH

UKRAINE IN FOCUS: As the leaders’ summit continues today, speculation is rife about if and when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will show up. He’s on the official speaker list, and is widely expected to arrive in Baku at some point.

It’s complicated: Ukraine, like Azerbaijan, was once part of the Soviet Union, and the two countries have had a complicated relationship since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Though Azerbaijan has funnelled aid and fuel to Ukraine since the war, it’s been trying to play it safe. Baku has not followed Western sanctions against Russia — but it is also benefitting from renewed relations with the EU, which is buying more fuel from Azerbaijan as it tries to wean itself off Russian gas.

Russian effect: While the Azeri regime was none too happy with Moscow’s support for separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russians still constitute the largest minority in Azerbaijan, with the number of expats rising in the three years since the invasion began. Azerbaijan denies the Russians have anything to do with the recent spike in luxury car sales of Bentleys and Lamborghinis, which are on offer in high-end dealerships in downtown Baku.

Message of regrowth: Should he arrive in Baku, Zelenskyy may drop by the Ukrainian Pavilion. The theme this year is regrowth, with the event space highlighting the ecocide perpetrated by Russia against Ukraine. A smashed solar panel — the result of Russian strikes — and a virtual reality experience which shows Ukraine’s ruined forests and fields showcase the environmental damage wrought by the war. The pavilion itself is constructed using eco-friendly paper embedded with seeds, which will be torn up and planted at the close of the summit.

Kremlin presence: Russia also has a dominant Matryoshka-doll-themed presence in the main site. It’s hosting a range of events during the week, including panel discussion on “food security and indigenous people” and Russia’s presidency of the BRICS group this year. No mention of its reported plans to merge its biggest oil companies to form the world’s second-larger producer of crude oil.

Awkward: COP is one of the most high-profile appearances by U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres since he shook Vladimir Putin’s hand at the BRICS summit in Russia last month. The U.N. chief has been welcoming leaders as they arrive on the green (not red) carpet. Let’s see what reception he gets from Zelenskyy.

LATEST FROM THE PLENARY

U.K. STEPS UP: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer used his moment in the sun to announce plans to cut U.K. emissions by 81 percent by 2035, compared with 1990 levels. But NGO Global Witness blasted the plan, saying in a statement that “using carbon capture to meet the UK’s target is like bailing out a sinking ship with a gold-plated sieve.” Charlie Cooper has the write-up.

U.S. STEPS DOWN: The Biden administration had intended to unveil a multinational call for “ambitious” efforts to cut emissions at this COP — but quietly abandoned that effort after Donald Trump‘s election win, my colleagues Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise and Sara Schonhardt report.

O CANADA: Meanwhile, Ottawa’s Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault defended his country’s record on climate in an interview with POLITICO’s Power Play podcast. “I’m obviously not denying the fact that Canada is a large emitter … we’re the fourth-largest oil and gas producer, that’s just a fact,” he told host Anne McElvoy. “But the fact is also that for the first time now in Canada’s history we are putting in place an unprecedented amount of effort, energy, regulations, investment to bend the curve.” Full interview here.

PAIN IN SPAIN: Less than two weeks after flash floods devastated eastern Spain, leaving more than 200 people dead, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez addressed COP delegates on Tuesday. Referring to the catastrophic flooding, he said “this disaster would have been less likely and less intense without the effect of climate change … this is an existential threat.”

Sánchez, who along with the regional governor is facing public anger over the authorities’ handling of the disaster, announced another €3.76 billion in aid on top of €10.6 billion unveiled last week.

Feeling the heat: The controversy also featured in Brussels last night during the European Parliament confirmation hearing of another high-profile Spanish politician: Teresa Ribera. Members of the European Parliament grilled the Spaniard, who is set to become one of the European Commission’s most powerful figures when she takes up a vast climate-meets-economy portfolio. Ribera, a seasoned climate negotiator and familiar face at COPs over the years, faced heat over her Socialist party’s handling of the flooding.

THE SCENIC ROUTE

BACK TO BASICS: For centuries, Azerbaijan was a key stop on the Silk Road, functioning as a gateway between Europe and Asia. This week, a group of intrepid explorers made the journey to Baku, old-school style.

Jess Silva, Jack Curtis and Jacques Sheehan, co-founders of the environmental group Carbon Jacked, made the journey from London to Baku by land. It’s not an easy task — mainly because Azerbaijan has essentially closed all land and sea borders since the Covid pandemic, a policy that fits nicely with the government’s authoritarian tendencies.

Last-minute reprieve: “We were in a pub in Tbilisi on Saturday night when we got an email from the Azerbaijani authorities saying we had permission to cross the border,” Sheehan and Silva, who are now comfortably in situ in the Green Zone, told Playbook. The group headed to the Georgian border by taxi on Sunday morning, and were waved through after some phone calls by border guards. They then took a taxi on the Azerbaijan side to a train station in the north west of the country, from where they made their way to Baku.

Counting those offsets: “We’ve calculated that our journey was 20 times better than flying in terms of carbon emissions,” said Silva, noting the trio crossed 10 countries and took 14 trains since leaving London Oct. 28. To quote the Carbon Jacked motto: “Saving the planet shouldn’t be boring.”

DISPATCH FROM THE BLUE ZONE

TAKE THE BUS: With politicians arriving for the second day of the leaders action summit, security is tight and organizers have warned of more road closures. The hosts have laid on fleets of buses to bring delegates to and from transport hubs in central Baku. Door to door, delegates are getting to the stadium in less than 40 minutes — not bad by COP standards.

SPOTTED: Moroccan Head of Government Aziz Akhannouch posing for photos in the Morocco Pavilion. He resisted the temptation of the ghriba cookies, briouat pastries and mint tea on offer.

FANCY A TIPPLE? The Singapore Pavilion is offering a selection of tea, coffee and beer for delegates. New Brew, a craft beer made with recycled sewage water — yes, you read that right — is proving a surprise hit. Billed as a sustainable beer with premium ingredients and an “ultra-crisp finish,” the beverage is backed by the Singaporean government to help address the country’s water scarcity problem. “Tropical Blonde Ale” is among the beers available.

PLACE TO BE SEEN: This year, the media center is located close to the main plenary rooms, giving eager hacks easy access to the powerbrokers as they hurry to and fro between negotiations. Azerbaijan’s lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev was mobbed by cameras and recording equipment Tuesday as he briefed the press.

Going live: Some big names in climate finance are also doing the media round, with World Bank chief Ajay Banga going live on Bloomberg TV and European Investment Bank chief Nadia Calviño conducting a nearby interview with AZ TV, Azerbaijan’s national network.

SPOTTED … at the Munich Security Conference/Goals House Climate Security Reflection Dinner at Goals House Tuesday night: CEO of COP26 Peter Hill; Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest; UNCCD COP15 chief Alain-Richard Donwahi, a former minister of Cote D’Ivoire; EY Global Vice Chair Sustainability Amy Brachio; Global Chair of Boston Consulting Group Rich Lesser; Freuds CEO Arlo Brady; EEAS Special Envoy for Climate and Environment Diplomacy Anthony Agotha; Jennifer Bélanger, NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence; CEO of Munich Security Conference Benedikt Franke; Carlos Pascual, S&P Global; Oleksiy Ryabchyn, adviser to Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration; Catherine Wong from the United Nations Development Program; Community Jameel’s George Richards; Scott Moore, University of Pennsylvania.

**The EU’s 26 commissioner hopefuls are seeking to be confirmed in their jobs. We’re reporting every twist and turn in our series of live blogs and will be live to reflect on the hearings and look at what they mean specifically for defense, tech and energy policies. Join us online.**

AGENDA

All times are local. Full agenda here.

— World Leaders Climate Action Summit; 10 a.m. 

— LGMA Response to COP29 and World Climate Action Summit; featuring President of the European Committee of the Regions Vasco Alves Cordeiro; Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike; Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu; Mugham; 10 a.m.

— Global Fossil Fuel C02 emissions report; Press Conference Room 2; Natavan, 10:30 a.m. 

— The Trillion Dollar Price Tag: A finance goal that reflects the needs of Global South countries; 350.org; Natavan, Area D; 11 a.m. 

— Leaders’ Summit of the Small Islands Developing States on Climate Change; Plenary Room Caspian; 12:20 p.m.

— HLC Special Event: Nature and Climate; Mugham; 1 p.m.

— Bloomberg Green Summit; Baku Business Center; 44 Neftchilar Avenue; 1 p.m. 

— Championing Climate Finance to Build Global Resilience; lunch roundtable, with UAE/Climate featuring Alterra CEO Majid Al Suwaidi; Goals House; Muğam Klub; 1 p.m.  

—”Business Model Transformation: A Critical Tool to deliver Climate transition plans”; We Mean Business Coalition Pavilion, Zone F; 2:30 p.m. 

— “The Power of Collaboration: Unifying Forces for Net-Zero”; Plenary Hall 2; Caspian, 2:40 p.m. Speakers include Azerbaijan’s Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; Global Chair of BCG Rich Lesser and Fortescue’s Andrew Forrest.

— Annual High-Level event GCA Opening; Plenary Hall; Caspian, 4:30 p.m. 

— The Role for the Bretton Woods Institutions in Climate Action; World Bank Pavilion; Blue Zone; 5 p.m. 

— World Leaders Climate Action Summit session — Seizing the Moment to Ratchet Net Zero Ambition, co-hosted by Net Zero Tracker and Under 2 Coalition; Side event Room 6, Blue Zone; 6:30 p.m. 

Thanks to Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Sara Schonhardt and Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

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