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Hello from New York,
Before the serious stuff: read our piece on how the extremely wealthy, today, portray themselves so differently from generations before. Phew, something I don’t need to fret about.
Welcome to the home stretch. The days that remain for either candidate to shape the outcome of the American presidential election are fast dwindling. In a handful of states, early voting is under way. And early ones matter more than ever: by one estimate 97% of voters in 2024 live in states that allow early casting of ballots, a huge jump up from 40% back in 2000. A great pile of votes, perhaps a record haul, will be cast long before November 5th comes along.
Say it quietly, but Kamala Harris and her supporters have more to cheer right now than her opponent. As summer gives way to autumn, much is going her way. Polls show a small but potentially significant shift in her favour. Credit her debate triumph over Donald Trump, which has also energised volunteers and donors. For some voters, the pain of inflation may be fading, helped by the Fed’s rate cut last week. We see, in our poll tracker, the Democrat claiming a steady but not spectacular four-point lead in the national vote. More importantly, thanks to shifts in swing states, she is pulling slightly ahead in our more cautious forecast model, too.
Mr Trump, meanwhile, is on the defensive. He looks distracted by the bizarre (pet-eating), the salacious (what is the deal with Laura Loomer, a far-right influencer seen travelling with the former president?) or scandalous. The case of the Republican would-be governor of North Carolina, Mark Robinson, does not help. Mr Trump has stood by him, even as allegations swirl about his defence of slavery, and calling himself a “Black Nazi” while posting on a porn site. (Mr Robinson denies them.) Ms Harris has put North Carolina back in play in the presidential race. For the Democrats only Barack Obama has won there in recent decades. But if Mr Trump has to worry about that prospect, it distracts from his efforts in states such as Pennsylvania that are most likely to decide the result.
The world will beat a path to New York this week, as the UN general assembly rolls on. The prospect of a wider war in the Middle East is the most pressing, given the recent audacious attacks by Israel to kill and injure Hizbullah leaders and members in southern Lebanon. Watch, too, for a meeting between Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and Joe Biden. At issue is how much more military help the West will give Ukraine’s armed forces in the coming months, and whether there will eventually be negotiations with Russia to end (or perhaps to pause) the conflict there.
For a lighter—or at least taller—subject, let me recommend our new story on the growing forest of ridiculously high buildings coming up in Asia and the Middle East, especially. Some of the “supertalls” really are beginning to scrape the skies.
Our new pint-sized news quiz is live, along with Dateline, our test of your historical knowledge. And now to our caption competition. The image I’ve chosen is from our cover in March, considering the various hair-raising shocks that threaten Europe. What caption would suggest to go with this image today? Write in with your best, funniest, ideas to economisttoday@economist.com.
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